What actually determines a lease payment
Three things: the negotiated vehicle price (capitalized cost), the predicted value at lease end (residual), and the money factor. Two of the three are negotiable, and the vehicle price is the one with the most room.
A lease quoted only as a monthly payment hides all three. Ask for the capitalized cost, the residual value and the money factor in writing, and negotiate the price exactly as you would a purchase.
- Capitalized cost is the negotiated price and is negotiable
- Residual is set by the lender and is generally fixed
- Money factor multiplied by 2,400 approximates the annual rate
- Mileage allowance and over-mileage charges are stated up front
Loan term and total cost
Extending a loan term reduces the monthly payment and increases what you pay overall, both through additional interest and through a longer period of owing more than the vehicle is worth.
Long terms have become common precisely because they make an expensive vehicle look affordable monthly. The number to compare between offers is the total of payments plus the down payment, not the payment itself.
- Compare total cost, not monthly payment
- A longer term extends the period of negative equity
- Arrange a pre-approval so the dealer's rate is a comparison
- Watch for a rate that changes between the lot and the finance office
Negative equity and rolling it forward
Owing more than a vehicle is worth is normal early in a loan, because depreciation is fastest in the first years. It becomes a problem when you need to trade before the loan balance catches up.
Rolling negative equity into a new loan moves the shortfall rather than resolving it, and it starts the next loan already underwater. Gap coverage addresses the insurance shortfall in a total loss but does not change the underlying arithmetic.